Hauser adds hazy portents about future of rate cuts
Patrick Commins
More from the Reserve Bank’s deputy governor: Andrew Hauser, says you don’t have to be “mad” to think more rate cuts are coming.
But as noted below, Hauser reckons the economy is struggling to grow without adding to inflation.
So even though Hauser’s far from being definitive about what happens to interest rates from here, the vibe is very much that mortgage holders shouldn’t hold out too much hope for further relief, if any at all.
I don’t think you have to be mad or sort of fanatic to think that future rate cuts could be coming; or plausibly, perhaps at the moment, you might worry about how much remaining room there is.
Hauser outlined scenarios where the RBA needed to hold from here, or where they lowered the cash rate, but no mention of the prospect for higher rates – which some economists have raised.
“You can take different views about the outlook for interest rates. I’m not sure we’re far, we’re close,” he said.
So these are debates, perhaps around adjustments at the margin, rather than large adjustments.
Key events
Josh Butler
ACT Liberal leader and deputy leader step down
The leader and deputy of the ACT Liberal opposition have both stood down without explanation, after a fortnight of controversy over the suspension of the former opposition leader.
Leanne Castley said in a statement that she and her deputy, Jeremy Hanson, would stand down as the leaders of the ACT’s Liberal party. In a post on social media, featuring a photo of the pair, Castley wrote:
To give the Canberra Liberals the best possible chance of success in the 2028 election, we have made the decision to step down from leadership.
A vote will be held to elect a new leadership team, and neither of us will be contesting any leadership positions. We extend our full support and best wishes to those who will take on these important roles.
Castley gave no firm reason for the move. Instead, she added: “In the spirit of ensuring a genuine fresh start for the new team, we will not be commenting publicly on the circumstances that have led to this decision.”
Castley has come under scrutiny over a decision to suspend the former Liberal leader, Elizabeth Lee, and fellow Liberal Peter Cain from the party room, after they crossed the floor on a vote in the ACT parliament. Liberal backbenchers are traditionally free to cross the floor and vote against agreed party policy.
Ian Sample
No link between paracetamol in pregnancy and autism or ADHD in children, review finds
A wide-ranging review into paracetamol use by pregnant women has found no convincing link between the common painkiller and the chances of children being diagnosed with autism and ADHD.
Publication of the work was fast-tracked to provide prospective mothers and their doctors with reliable information after the Trump administration urged pregnant women to avoid paracetamol – also known as acetaminophen or Tylenol – claiming it was contributing to rising rates of autism.
Speaking at the White House in September, the US president said women should talk to their doctor about limiting the use of the painkiller while pregnant and followed up with far stronger language, telling women to “fight like hell” not to take it.
While rates of autism have risen in recent decades, many scientists believe the trend is driven by greater awareness, improvements in diagnosis and a substantial broadening of the criteria doctors use to describe the condition.
In an umbrella review published in the British Medical Journal on Monday, researchers analysed previously published scientific reviews on whether paracetamol raised the likelihood of pregnant women having children who are diagnosed with autism or ADHD.
They concluded the quality of the reviews ranged from “low to critically low”, while any apparent link between the painkiller and autism was probably explained by family genetics and other factors.
Read more:
ANZ sacks 1,000 staff in two months
Luca Ittimani
ANZ has sacked over 1,000 staff in the first two months of its cost-cutting plan, which workers say has raised stress and chaos.
The bank’s chief executive, Nuno Matos, in September announced ANZ would cut 3,500 full-time roles from its 40,000-plus workforce by September 2026.
Handing down the bank’s annual results today, Matos said nearly a third of those were already gone and the majority of targeted roles will be gone by March. The bank had also stood down 1,000 consultants, he said, telling investors this morning:
In order to reduce uncertainty for our people, we have moved at pace.
The Finance Sector Union today warned the cuts were putting workers on edge, with national president, Wendy Streets, saying:
We’re hearing from people who can’t sleep, who’ve developed panic attacks, and who dread going to work.
One worker told the union:
Everything is chaos – roles are changing weekly, workloads are huge, and no one knows who will still have a job next month.
Matos in September said the cuts had nothing to do with AI and did not mention the technology this morning, focusing on his efforts to turn around the bank’s slow revenue growth and rising costs.
Banks across Australia have been cutting jobs in 2025 but ANZ’s are the biggest by far. Read more about the cuts here:
Tony Abbott leaves War Memorial council
Krishani Dhanji
Former prime minister, Tony Abbott, has not been reappointed to the Australian War Memorial council, with Kim Beazley to remain chair. Abbott was first appointed to the council in 2019 for a three-year term, and reappointed in 2022.
Veterans’ affairs minister Matt Keogh announced the changes, with Dan Keighran VC and outgoing national RSL president Greg Melick also leaving the council. Melick will be replaced by incoming national RSL president Peter Tinley. Beazley and Wing Commander (retired) Sharon Bown have both been reappointed.
Keogh announced Maj Gen Wade Stothart (retired), director of the Office of Australian War Graves and Lesley Alway, chair of the Geelong Arts Centre Trust and former Opera Australia board member to join the Council.
In a statement, Keogh said the new appointments would bring a “fresh, broader perspective”.
Beazley said he would welcome the “insight” of the incoming members:
“We thank Minster Keogh for these inspired appointments to the Memorial’s Council. Peter, Lesley and Wade bring with them a wealth of experience and expertise that will guide the Memorial in continuing to fulfil its duty to all Australians.”
Lisa Cox
NSW records lowest average October rainfall since 2019
New South Wales has recorded its lowest average October rainfall since 2019 and areas with long-term rainfall deficiencies have expanded in the state’s south, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest drought statement.
NSW and parts of Victoria, south-eastern Queensland and parts of southern and central Western Australia all experienced below average rainfall in the lowest 30% of all Octobers since 1900.
The bureau said soil moisture deficits had expanded and intensified across much of the eastern mainland and streamflow was below average at many sites across southern Australia and central eastern Queensland, with some locations recording their lowest October streamflow on record.
By contrast, much of WA, Tasmania, south and central South Australia, the northern and western Northern Territory and northern Queensland experienced above average monthly rainfall in the highest 30% of all Octobers since 1900.
The bureau said long-term rainfall deficiencies in southern Victoria and Tasmania had eased in severity and extent.
For the summer outlook, the BoM’s long-range forecast for December to February says above average rainfall remains likely for areas of north-east and central Queensland and parts of coastal and inland NSW, while rainfall is likely to be below average for most of WA and the northern half of the NT, and parts of south-west Tasmania.
Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average.
Hauser adds hazy portents about future of rate cuts
Patrick Commins
More from the Reserve Bank’s deputy governor: Andrew Hauser, says you don’t have to be “mad” to think more rate cuts are coming.
But as noted below, Hauser reckons the economy is struggling to grow without adding to inflation.
So even though Hauser’s far from being definitive about what happens to interest rates from here, the vibe is very much that mortgage holders shouldn’t hold out too much hope for further relief, if any at all.
I don’t think you have to be mad or sort of fanatic to think that future rate cuts could be coming; or plausibly, perhaps at the moment, you might worry about how much remaining room there is.
Hauser outlined scenarios where the RBA needed to hold from here, or where they lowered the cash rate, but no mention of the prospect for higher rates – which some economists have raised.
“You can take different views about the outlook for interest rates. I’m not sure we’re far, we’re close,” he said.
So these are debates, perhaps around adjustments at the margin, rather than large adjustments.
Minns rejects claim neo-Nazi approval showed ‘double standard’
Penry Buckley
Minns rejected the claim by pro-Palestine activists that allowing the rally to go ahead showed a “double standard” in NSW police’s approach to protests. He said:
That would only be the case if anyone were willing to reject the fact that police have not only granted but worked with Palestine Action Group organisers for hundreds and hundreds of rallies in Sydney.
Asked about the threats allegedly received by Kellie Sloane and Allegra Spender, Minns said:
This is another example of what particularly women in public life have to put up with.
My hat’s off to both of them, the fact that they’re prepared to stand up, put their views, put their beliefs for civic life in New South Wales.
Penry Buckley
Minns does not know how high application for neo-Nazi rally reached
The NSW premier, Chris Minns, has said he does not know how high within NSW police an application for a neo-Nazi rally outside parliament on Saturday reached.
Speaking to reporters earlier, the premier, was asked how high the application, which was automatically approved after it was not rejected within 7 days, reached after NSW police local area command initially reviewed it. Minns said:
I don’t, other than, you know, obviously I take the commissioner at his word and (police minister Yasmin Catley) at her word that they weren’t aware of it. I know I wasn’t part of the review.
Minns says the government is investigating whether hate speech laws, including a ban on Nazi symbols, can be expanded to include “Nazi speech, Nazi behaviours on Sydney Streets”.
He also says the government is also seeking to “clarify and codify” to make sure an approved form 1 protest application does not give protesters a “free pass” when it comes to hate speech laws.
Patrick Commins
RBA deputy governor says monetary policy may need to stay tight
The Reserve Bank deputy governor has cast more doubt on the prospect of another rate cut, saying monetary policy may need to stay tight in an economy “boxed in by its own capacity constraints”.
The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.6% on Melbourne Cup day after inflation jumped in the September quarter, reversing a steady two-year decline.
Andrew Hauser told an investment bank conference that “we find ourselves in an unusual place”, where the economy is only one year into a recovery yet is already struggling to pick up speed without adding to price pressures.
Businesses in the post-pandemic economy have struggled with supply constraints, as a shortage of materials and skilled workers has crimped their potential to ramp-up activity.
Hauser said normally businesses at the start of an upswing in demand would have plenty of spare capacity to increase activity without their costs rising rapidly.
“But this time looks different,” he said, adding:
Our central estimate suggests that demand was slightly above potential output at the time GDP growth started to pick up last year – the tightest economic backdrop to a recovery since at least the early 1980s.
How much spare capacity exists in the economy will help determine whether we get further rate cuts over coming months, he said.
Andrew Messenger
Brisbane homeless crisis worsens ahead of Olympics, according to report
The number of Queenslanders accessing homelessness services rose 20% in the last year, and Brisbane’s 2032 Olympics risks making the city’s housing crisis worse, unless action is taken immediately, according to the state’s peak housing body
The city already has Australia’s tightest rental market, at just 1.1%, according to the report by Queensland Shelter and the Commonwealth-funded Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.
The report reveals an 114% increase in the number of homeless households living in hotels and motel rooms paid for through the state government’s immediate housing response program, in the seven Brisbane local government areas, over the last year.
Brisbane city council had by far the largest problem, with 1,901 households, more than doubling since 2024.
QShelter CEO Fiona Caniglia said the games were a “unique opportunity to create a legacy we can be proud of that will make a real impact on homelessness, not in four years when it will be too late”:
With possible early signs of housing pressure and displacement emerging, the race is really on now for the benefits from that additional funding to be realised.
Penry Buckley
Allegra Spender says NSW police allowing neo-Nazi rally a ‘stuff-up’ amid threats against her and another MP
Returning to the serious threats allegedly received by female politicians after their condemnation of Saturday’s neo-Nazi rally outside NSW parliament, Wentworth MP Allegra Spender told the ABC she is “not easily intimidated”:
I was shocked when I heard (about the threats) but to be honest, let’s remind ourselves who these people are. They are extremists, and they do not represent Australian values, where we live, I think in one of the most tolerant, welcoming and open countries in the world, and I think most of us really celebrate that.
Asked about how the rally was allowed to go ahead, Spender says:
I think it’s very unclear so far from the New South Wales government, and also the New South Wales police really what should have happened, instead of what actually did happen. And I think it really was a stuff-up.
What does it say to people, when you go: “We’ve got these new (hate speech) laws, but we’re not going to do anything if we think people are in breach of that”. So I think that’s the other big question, don’t think we’ve got an answer to.
The NSW opposition confirmed that Kellie Sloane MP has allegedly received death threats after her condemnation of the rally.
NSW police commissioner says actions at rally ‘despicable’ as investigation into event continues
Mal Lanyon just spoke to Radio Sydney, saying police needed to investigate each group on a “case by case” basis, but said those who gathered at the neo-Nazi rally on Saturday seemed to hold an ideology backing a “white Australia policy”.
He said the actions of the group were “despicable”, adding that the police were deeply investigating the 60-person rally to gather evidence that could be used in the future if NSW police needed to step in if there was a filing for another such event.
The purpose of investigating the matter so thoroughly on the weekend is that we have evidence … that will obviously form (a) basis if we were to go to the supreme court and oppose (anything in the future). …
We have to work within the current legislation, we work very closely with government in terms of that legislation.
Earlier this morning, Lanyon said there was an “internal communication error” that led to the rally’s approval, telling Channel Nine’s Today that NSW police had already managed more than 1,000 protests this year alone.
From time to time, matters aren’t briefed up …
Based on their actions on the weekend, and that’s why we’re investigating, it may well be that I would object in the supreme court to any further protest, but obviously, we need to make sure that we’ve got a case that we can go forward
Female NSW politicians refer threats received after condemning neo-Nazi rally to police
Penry Buckley
Federal MP Allegra Spender and NSW state MP Kellie Sloane have reported threats they received after their condemnation of Saturday’s neo-Nazi rally outside state parliament to the police.
Speaking on ABC Radio Sydney earlier, the shadow health minister, Sloane, said she had began to receive dozens of “pretty hateful” messages on X on Sunday, including some “concerning enough to forward to police”, and had since deactivated her account:
I think there are a lot of keyboard cowards, and I’m a pretty resilient individual, and I’m not easily bothered by these things.
I don’t want them to think they’ve had any kind of win over me because I’ve exited Twitter or X … But I won’t be intimidated by them, and I won’t stop speaking up about behaviour that is racist and offends the majority of decent people in New South Wales.
Asked about how the protest was able to go ahead, after the premier, Chris Minns, and the NSW police commissioner, Mal Lanyon, put it down to a failure of communication, Sloane says: “I’d suggest it’s a complete stuff up.”
The ABC has reported Spender has reported threats allegedly posted to the neo-Nazi group’s Telegram channel made in response to her condemnation of the rally – including a call for followers to “rhetorically rape” the Wentworth MP – to the Australian Federal Police.
Luca Ittimani
ANZ profits slide
ANZ has reported a 14% decline in profits to $5.8bn, as it sacks staff and pays penalties for misconduct.
The bank warned in late October it would report $1.1bn in one-off costs for the year to September, with staff redundancies accounting for more than half of the difference.
It also paid a $240m Asic lawsuit over widespread misconduct and took millions more in costs after closing money-back platform Cashrewards, taking over Suncorp Bank and its investment in an Indonesian bank.
If one-off significant items are excluded, ANZ’s profit was stable compared with the prior year at $6.9bn. Household savings with the bank rose $10bn and home loans picked up $17bn, while fewer borrowers fell behind on their repayments.
But ANZ has seen its profit margin weaken significantly in recent years, with net interest margin sliding to 1.54% in the six months to September – the lowest in years.
Josh Butler
Prime minister says John Laws was an extraordinary figure, and there won’t be ‘another like him’
The PM also spoke about the death of veteran broadcaster John Laws, who he called “a legend,” adding: “He was such an extraordinary figure in Australian’s lives.”
Albanese went on:
I spoke to him many times as PM, and as leader of the opposition, and as minister going back a long, long way and you could just have a genuine conversation with him.
And he was interested, he allowed you to speak.
He had strong views that he would put himself, but it was a genuine conversation and I don’t think there’ll be another like him, certainly, to be on top for such a long period of time.
